KIM Minsu, Ship & Offshore Technology Team

  Background

With the tightening of standards under the TMSA (Tanker Management and Self-Assessment)* program, tanker operators are now required to establish faster and more scientific response systems in the event of maritime accidents. In response, Korean Register has expanded its existing Emergency Response Service (ERS) to include the prediction of ship drift trajectories and oil spill dispersion paths, aiming to minimize damage.
This enhanced service, ERSD, provides critical information for immediate post-accident response, based on forecast data from meteorological data providers.

*TMSA (Tanker Management and Self-Assessment): A self-assessment program established by OCIMF that 

  enables operators to evaluate their operational management systems and promote continuous improvement 

  based on best practices and KPIs.

  Service Overview

ERSD (Drifting Prediction Service) is a simulation-based service that provides rapid predictive results in the event of a maritime accident. Utilizing two specialized programs, the service effectively forecasts the movement paths of both drifting vessels and oil spills.

  1) ShipDrift-KR – Ship Drift Prediction

• Based on NOAA’s GOODS ocean forecast data, reflecting drift conditions across all sea areas
• Utilizes the ShipDrift module of OpenDrift to simulate drift trajectories using a particle-based method
• Enables rapid identification of the vessel's drifting location and timely provision of predictive information
• Helps identify potential risks in advance when a vessel is adrift in open waters due to engine failure or similar incidents
• Supports search and rescue operations by optimizing search areas using simulation results

    2) OpenOil-KR – Oil Spill Dispersion Prediction

• Provides simulation of oil movement and dispersion routes using the OpenOil module of OpenDrift
• Predicts the trajectory and spread of spilled oil, enabling proactive response planning, development of containment strategies, and estimation of affected areas

Key Features

• Ready to use online with quick installation
• Automatically retrieves and applies ocean weather forecast data based on the accident location
• ShipDrift generates drift prediction reports automatically after entering basic ship specifications
• OpenOil generates oil spill and dispersion prediction reports automatically by selecting the fuel type

The complex simulation process is fully automated, allowing users to obtain prediction results easily and quickly, regardless of technical expertise.

  Development

This service goes beyond basic open-source utilization. It was developed into an advanced prediction solution by incorporating client-specific requirements through generative AI.

  1) Developed an automatic integration module for NOAA GOODS ocean forecast data

• Web-based data retrieval and automated integration using generative AI

   2) User-Friendly GUI-Based Analysis Environment

• Easy-to-use interface based on Python functions

   3) Automated Report Generation

• Simulation results are summarized and output in a report format

  Expected Impact

The ERSD provides rapid predictive information immediately after an incident, helping to minimize human casualties and marine pollution caused by maritime accidents. This contributes to the safer and more sustainable maritime operating environment.
Leeway-KR, a service to predict drifting containers or debris, will be added to enhance route safety and prevent marine pollution.